Ding Dong the Tax is Dead

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IN THE LOBBY: It certainly didn’t take very long for industry-focused interest groups to cheer as loudly as they could upon hearing the carbon tax had finally been repealed.

First out of the blocks was the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia (CME), which scorned what it described as the months of post-election obstruction by the opposition and minor parties as it heralded the new Senate in finally repealing the carbon tax.

The CME said the removal of the tax was the first steps to restoring the resources sector’s international competiveness.

“The carbon tax repeal marks a significant milestone in delivering on the Abbott Government election commitment to abolish unnecessary taxes and realise the resource sectors true economic potential,” CME chief executive Reg Howard-Smith said.

“The imposition of the world’s highest fixed price on carbon has placed a significant cost burden on Western Australian resource projects.”

According to the CME the carbon tax was last year solely responsible for placing a burden on $1.2 billion on the mining industry across the country.

An impost, the group declared, that was not faced by Australia’s mineral export competitors.

The CME insinuate the high costs faced by the resource when doing business in Australia.

Imposed costs on industry, such as the carbon tax, it maintained, has worsened our international competitiveness.

“The next item of business for the Senate should be the swift repeal of the Minerals Resource Rent Tax,” Howard-Smith intoned.

“It has been both inefficient and ineffective while adding a significant compliance and regulatory burden to industry.”

Not to be outdone the Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA) also hoisted banners and popped party favours upon hearing the news.

“Today’s repeal of the carbon pricing mechanism is significant as it removes a cost facing Australian LNG exporters competing in global markets; one that does not exist for our international competitors,” APPEA chief executive David Byers said.

“Wood Mackenzie forecasts that by 2025, LNG demand within the Pacific Basin alone, will outstrip supply from existing or committed LNG projects by 160 million tonnes.

“Surging LNG demand in Asia presents an enormous opportunity for Australia.”

Byers was also concerned about rising development costs, which he said raise doubts about the attractiveness of continued investment in Australian projects.

“While initiatives are being taken within the industry to address cost competitiveness, it is good to see policy action that removes costs for trade-exposed producers,” Byers continued.
 
“APPEA supports a national climate change policy that delivers emissions reduction at least cost while recognising the greenhouse benefits that flow from a prosperous and vibrant natural gas industry.”

However, a more controlled release from Deloitte said that although the carbon tax has been repealed, the country’s emission obligations will not simply vanish into thin air.

What the result will be, according to Delloite lead partner for sustainability Paul Dobson is there will be little change for business in the short-term.

“While many companies might breathe an immediate sigh of relief, the bottom line is that this issue is not going away,” Dobson warned.

“As the government looks to implement its Direct Action policy and the Emission Reduction Fund (ERF), there will be an increased focus on emission reduction projects and activities including energy efficiency.

“With this in mind companies need to develop a strategic approach to these sustainability issues aligned with their business strategy to accommodate the changing policy landscape.”

Mr Dobson indicated that following the carbon tax repeal, there will be three immediate considerations for business:

To manage the long tail of compliance imposed by the carbon tax;

Prepare for the Direct Action policy and Emission Reduction Fund; and

Recognise that reporting through the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER) scheme will remain in place.

The carbon tax will not miraculously disappear overnight, but instead will hang around leaving a long tail of compliance for companies to deal with.

Dobson explained the even though it is back-dated to 1 July 2014, companies still have reporting obligations in October 2014 with final payments due in February 2015 and non-compliance penalties will continue to apply.

“Businesses need to make sure they report their liable emissions accurately for the year ended 30 June 2014 and comply with audit requirements as well as ‘true-up’ their free permits,” Dobson said.

“In addition, companies should review their contractual arrangements, pricing and supply-chains to ensure that the effect of the carbon pricing removal flows through appropriately – particularly in the energy sector.”

Dobson pointed to a white paper and draft legislation the government has released on its Direct Action policy centre piece, the Emission Reduction Fund (ERF).

The precise timing of the introduction of all elements of the ERF remain uncertain at present, Dobson believes it is likely we will see the commencement of its key components in the latter part of 2014.

The ERF will operate through three key elements:

Crediting emission reductions: crediting eligible reduction and abatement projects and activities;

Purchasing emission reductions: auctions to purchase emission reductions at the lowest cost; and

Safeguarding emission reductions: baselines for large facilities to safeguard emissions reductions across the economy at large.

There are a wide range of emissions reduction and abatement projects that companies will be able to consider under the ERF.

Activities may include upgrading commercial buildings; improving the energy efficiency of industrial facilities; capturing landfill gas; reducing coal mine waste gas; reforesting and vegetating marginal lands.

“Organisations should start reviewing their activities and consider potential projects and determine how to best take advantage of the ERF and the potential funding on offer,” Dobson said.

“Planning should start now so that organisations can be in position to have registered projects for participation in the first round of auctions, in the second half of this year.”

It is also important for businesses to note the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting regime will remain in place for all large companies.

Organisations will still be required to continue to report their carbon emissions, energy consumption and energy production.

The NGER data is to be used as part of the safeguarding mechanism under the ERF going forward.

“Despite the political debate around the carbon tax and the best mechanism to achieve carbon reductions, there is bipartisan agreement to reduce emissions (5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020),” Dobson reminded everybody.

“While it will be challenging to navigate the changing regulatory environment, organisations should focus on the opportunities presented by emission reduction and energy efficiency projects in order to extract business benefits and at the same time contribute to Australia’s carbon reduction targets.”

Uranium industry must prepare for inevitable Chinese demand

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CONFERENCE CALLER: In order to see where uranium is headed, Julian Tapp CEO of uranium play Energy and Minerals Australia said it is important to try and imagine just where Chinese demand will be in 20 years from now.

“You need to look at the amount of electricity they might be consuming and what kind of fuel they are most likely to use to generate that electricity and what that may mean for uranium demand,” he told the Australian Uranium Conference in Perth this week.

 

Looking ahead, Tapp said he considers the Chinese economy will continue to grow, just at a slower rate.

Since the beginning of this century China’s rate of growth has been around 10 per cent per annum, which Tapp anticipates to slow to between five and six per cent per annum over the next 20 years.

As much as a slow down this appears to be, it still results in trebling the size of the country’s economy.

As the Chinese population reaches a peak at around 1.45 billion people, its economy will most likely become more oriented towards domestic consumers who are slightly less energy intensive than their industry counterparts.

Tapp estimates electricity consumption per person will hit around 7,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) – in line with level of wealth.

“When you convert that into the amount of generating capacity they have to have, they need to more than double the amount of generating capacity they currently have,” Tapp said.

“Twenty years from now I see their generating capacity being above 2,500 gigawatts – it’s about 1,250 at the moment.

“That is a lot of electricity generating capacity they will have to build over the next twenty years.

“It represents, roughly, about one gigawatt every week for the next twenty years.”

Tapp supplied some startling statistics in regards to China’s current power generation, which is largely reliant on burning coal.

China consumes around 4 billion tonnes of coal per year – that is about 11 million tonnes of coal per day.

To provide some perspective on that number, Tapp said that if a train carrying 11 million tonnes of coal was lined up end to end it would stretch for 1750km, in other words from Mandurah (south of Perth) all the way to Broome.

That’s a lot of coal to move around any country in one day.

To operate an equivalent (1GW) electricity generator would require about three to four million tonnes of coal per year – approximately 200 large coal trains per year.

This compares to about 11 shipping containers per year of uranium concentrate to generate the same amount of electricity.

Burning that much coal is not good for a country that is now focused on reducing its CO2 emissions.

Tapp said he has calculated global CO2 emissions for 2014 will be around 36 billion tonnes.

China, he calculates, will top the emissions per country list with 10 billion tonnes (28% of world total), 6.2 billion (17%) tonnes of which will result from the generation of electricity.

“Burning coal in China, for electricity, is generating more carbon dioxide than the entire United States economy is at the moment,” he said.

“It’s for that reason, I say, that if they are going to double their electricity generation – they can’t double their coal-fired electricity generation.

“They are going to have to find something else to generate their electricity.”

China has signalled its intention to generate electricity from renewables, which Tapp suggests would account for around 350GW and recently signed an agreement for a new gas pipeline with Russia that would be part of a total 200GW of gas fired power.

That still leaves a substantial shortfall of some 700GW of the forecast 1250GW that it will need to produce.

All up that means there is room for at least 300GW of nuclear power, which would require an annual input of around 60,000 tonnes of uranium.

 

Source: Conference presentation

“Some people say the Chinese will be unable to scale up to that,” Tapp said.

“But when you compare that to the US nuclear program, in relative terms, this is less than what the Americans managed.

“If the Chinese get to about 320 gigawatts by 2035, they will still only be at 12 per cent of their generation capacity as nuclear.

“For the Americans it’s around 20 per cent, in almost every developed country that uses nuclear power, the figures are considerably higher than 12 per cent with most countries up above 20 per cent to around 40 per cent.

“France is at the top of the list at 75 per cent.”

Looking ahead to 2035, Tapp sees for uranium being much more in demand than what it is at present.

If his calculations for the Chinese are correct, he insists they will probably need around an additional 75,000 tonnes of uranium per annum.

They won’t be the only buyer in the market, of course with Russia, India, Saudi Arabia and UAE combining to require around additional 35,000 toones.

The American market will most probably be around the same, however Europe could fall off thanks to the German embargo but there will most likely be minimal changes to these, resulting in total global demand of approximately 190,000 tonnes of uranium.

Where will that supply come from?

The former Soviet Union states could supply around 50,000 tonnes, Canada 25,000 to 45,000 tonnes, Africa 15,000 tonnes and the rest of the world, say 10,000 tonnes.

Current Australian figures, depending on Olympic Dam, suggest we could stump up some 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of uranium for a total global supply in 2035 of approximately 120,000 to 150,000 tonnes of uranium.

“Twenty years from now, the global market requires about 190,000 tonnes of concentrate,” Tapp said.

“When you look at the supply side, you realise they can’t reach that level.

“Go back and look at every potential mine you think is viable at US$70 per pound, put them all into production and add them up…no matter how optimistic I am, I can’t come up with a number anywhere near where the demand is going to be.”

Tapp suggested such a shortfall on the supply side of the equation can only be a good thing for the price of uranium.

“The bottom lines is – I think the price will have to go above US$70 per pound…If I was to take a stab, I would say it has to go above US$100 per pound,” he said.

“When planning projects, I would still use US$70 per pound, but I do think it is much more likely – in the very long term – the long term price of uranium, in real terms, is going to be higher than US$70 per pound – somewhere between US$100 to US$120.”

Ethics approval granted for OncoSil™ Clinical Pivotal Trial

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: OncoSil Medical Limited (ASX: OSL) has been granted Ethics Approval for the Australian hospital sites for the Pivotal Clinical Trial for the company’s lead product candidate, the OncoSil™ localised radiation therapy treatment for pancreatic cancer.

The company said the Ethics Approval for the Australian sites in the OncoSil™ Pivotal Clinical Trial was an advancement in the product’s trial process, and is the culmination of a detailed ethics submission process withits Hospital Ethics Committee, over the past four months.

With Ethics Approval in place for the Australian component of the trial, OncoSil Medical indicated it will now work to finalise arrangements for the first group of hospitals to commence recruiting patients into the OncoSil™ Pivotal Clinical Trial.

The company anticipates the first trial hospitals will be in Australia.

The company indicated it is continuing to make preparations for an Investigational Device Exemption (IDE) submission for OncoSil™ to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and expects to submit an IDE in the near future.

OncoSil Medical considers an IDE submission to represent a major step in the regulatory pathway for OncoSil™, and would be the first step towards securing the FDA’s commercial approval for OncoSil™ under a Premarket Approval (PMA).

OncoSil™ is an implantable device that emits radiation directly into a pancreatic tumour, and the surrounding pain conducting nerves, and delivers radiation therapy locally for up to three months.

The device is inserted directly into the centre of the tumour using well established technology in a short 15-30 minute procedure.

OncoSil Medical said radiation therapy, such as that supplied by OncoSil™, is known to kill tumour cells.

“We are delighted with the continued progress achieved in OncoSil™’s clinical development program,” OncoSil Medical CEO Dr. Neil Frazer said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

“The grant of Ethics Approval for the Australian arm of the trial is another step in the product’s development pathway, and the OncoSil team continues its work to advance the trial process.

“Over the coming months we look forward to bringing the first group of trial hospitals on-line and commencing the patient recruitment process.”

Website: www.oncosil.com.au

Cynata Contracts Leading CRO to Conduct Preclinical Studies

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: Cynata Therapeutics (ASX: CYP) has signed an agreement with WuXi AppTec (NYSE:WX), a leading global biopharmaceutical contract research organisation, to conduct preclinical safety studies with Cynata’s unique Cymerus™ stem cell technology.

The studies will be conducted at WuXi AppTec’s GLP-compliant, FDA-registered facility in St Paul, Minnesota.

Cynata’s preclinical program has been designed following an in-depth review of the current regulatory expectations in major jurisdictions worldwide, which has included direct interaction with regulatory authorities.

The data generated from these studies will be key in supporting Cynata’s planned clinical trial program, which is expected to commence next year.

“We are very pleased to have engaged an organisation as proficient and well regarded as WuXi AppTec to conduct these vital studies,” Cynata vice president, product development Dr Kilian Kelly said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

“The team of scientists that will run this project has extensive experience conducting similar studies with other cellular therapy products, which gives us confidence that our program will be conducted to the highest standards.

“We expect these safety studies, as part of the broader preclinical program, to facilitate regulatory clearance of our planned clinical trial in graft versus host disease.”

Cynata explained the Cymerus™ technology facilitates large scale production of MSCs from a single donor, which it says is a key element for pharmaceutical companies as they move into stem cell medicine.

Email: admin@cynata.com

Website: www.cynata.com

Probiotec commences clinical trial

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: Probiotec Limited (ASX: PBP) announced that further to its ongoing research and development program with Griffith University and other research organisations, the company has commenced a clinical trial to investigate the effectiveness of Glycomax Lactoferrin and bovine whey derived Ig rich fraction (Immunoglobulin) for the treatment of atopic dermatitis.

The study will be undertaken in conjunction with Associate Professor Stephen Shumack and Dr Phillip Tong of the St George Dermatology and Skin Cancer Clinic.

The company said it is also undertaking a gene expression study utilising Lactoferrin and Immunoglobulin with Griffith University.

The trial aims to examine the effect of speciality milk proteins (being Lactoferrin and Immunoglobulin) on atopic dermatitis, otherwise known as Eczema.

Eczema is an inflammatory skin condition Probiotec said is estimated to affect between 2 per cent to 10 per cent of adults in Australia and is more prevalent in children.

Ethics approval for this trial has been obtained with recruitment now underway.

The company expects the trial to be completed prior to the end of the 2015 financial year.

Probiotec claimed that should it be successful, this trial would provide a major step forward in the field for the treatment of a condition that currently has no cure.

Website: www.probiotec.com.au

FDA grants Starpharma Phase 3 trial

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: Starpharma Holdings (ASX: SPL) announced the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreement on the design and planned analyses of the phase 3 clinical studies of the VivaGel® bacterial vaginosis (BV) product for the prevention of recurrent BV.

Starpharma said the favourable SPA outcome provides a binding agreement from the FDA that the phase 3 clinical study design, endpoints, statistical analyses and other aspects of the planned studies adequately address objectives in support of a US regulatory submission for approval of the product.

The granting of SPA agreement by the FDA follows an earlier agreement of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on the design of the phase 3 studies.

Starpharma will now commence two phase 3 clinical trials of VivaGel® for the prevention of recurrent BV at sites in North America, Europe and Asia.

The two phase 3, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trials will be identical in design and will compare the rate of BV recurrence in women using VivaGel® to the rate of recurrence in women using a placebo gel during a 16 week treatment period.

Approximately 600 women will be recruited into each study.

“Receiving agreement on the SPA is an important and very positive development as it effectively eliminates the US regulatory risk associated with clinical development, by specifying upfront the FDA’s agreed trial design,” Starpharma chief executive officer Dr Jackie Fairley said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

“This significantly reduces overall development risk for VivaGel®.

“SPA agreement from the FDA is protected by US law and gives Starpharma certainty and confidence that the studies will support a regulatory submission for the approval of VivaGel® for the prevention of recurrent BV in the US.”

VivaGel is a non-antibiotic agent formulated as a vaginally applied gel for prevention of BV recurrence.

It is also being developed for the management of BV symptoms, which include unpleasant vaginal odour and discharge, and regulatory submissions to support the symptomatic relief indication are also planned for 2HCY14.

Starpharma explained there are no approved products for the prevention of recurrent BV and so VivaGel® will be a world-first therapy for this troublesome condition.

Bacterial vaginosis affects around 1 in 3 women and recurs in approximately 50 per cent of women within 12 months.

In the previous exploratory phase 2 clinical trial, more than 80 per cent of women receiving 1 per cent VivaGel® remained BV-free at 16 weeks and the product also provided protection against the occurrence of BV symptoms.

Starpharma said formal market research with both patients and clinicians and from Key Opinion Leaders strongly supports the demand for a product such as VivaGel® in the management of BV.

Website: www.starpharma.com

Neuren to start Phase 2 trial

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU) has received approval from the Institutional Review Board at Womack Army Medical Centre to start its Phase 2 clinical trial of NNZ-2566 in concussion (also referred to as mild traumatic brain injury).

The double-blind, placebo-controlled trial will be conducted with the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, as a continuation of the collaboration between Neuren and the US Army on the development of potential therapies for traumatic brain injury.

Neuren said that the trial preparations are well advanced and enrolment of subjects will commence as soon as approval is received from the Human Research Protection Office (HRPO) of the US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command.

The trial will involve approximately 132 subjects with mild traumatic brain injury, who will be enrolled and receive treatment with either NNZ-2566 or placebo for seven days post-injury.

Two dose levels of orally administered NNZ-2566 are being tested.

Neuren explained that a number of measures assessing physical and emotional symptoms and cognitive function will be analysed, together with safety and tolerability measures and the company expects that top-line results from the trial will be available in the second half of 2015.

There is currently no approved drug therapy available for acute concussion.

Neuren indicated its trial is a world-first commercial sponsored clinical trial of a potential new medicine in this therapeutic area.

Test conducted using animal models have demonstrated NNZ-2566 to inhibit neuroinflammation, normalize microglial function, restore synaptic signalling and increase IGF-1 expression in the brain.

Neuren considers these effects have the potential to address cellular and molecular changes in the brain caused by concussion.

“Given the known properties of NNZ-2566, we are hopeful that this important trial is able to demonstrate the potential for NNZ-2566 to help mitigate the serious health and economic ramifications of concussions, which are now being recognised in civilian, sporting and military communities around the world,” Neuren Pharmaceuticals executive chairman Richard Treagus said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

SomnoMed takes over Italian Distribution

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: SomnoMed Limited (ASX: SOM) has signed agreements with its Italian service and distribution partner, taking over control of the marketing and distribution of its products in Italy from 1st September 2014.

The company has distributed its products through a third party in Italy for the past five years and is now is now establishing its own marketing and sales operation in the country.

The company explained this latest move to be the final step in the process of taking control and building its own marketing and sales organisation in all Western European markets.

Over the last two years SomnoMed has acquired associated businesses in the Netherlands, Sweden, France and Germany and expanded the operation of these organisations in 2013 into Norway, Denmark and Belgium.

Over the last six months SomnoMed has entered into agreements with national service partners and was expanding into Finland, UK, Republic of Ireland, Spain and Portugal.

“SomnoMed has a close and longstanding relationship with SSSleep lab di Martinez Ortodonzia (“SSG”) in Italy, a leading orthodontic laboratory specialised in the dental sleep area,” SomnoMed executive chairman Dr. Peter Neustadt said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

“In line with our European strategy it was important that we will be able to build our own marketing and distribution organisation and Italy is the third largest country in Europe.

“A search for an Italian sales manager is underway and we expect to hit the ground running by the first of September when we officially take control of marketing and sales in Italy.”

Website: www.somnomed.com.au

Rhinomed records strong sales growth

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THE ROADHOUSE PHARMACY: Respiratory and nasal technology company Rhinomed Limited (ASX: RNO) has recorded $201,000 in sales of its lead Turbine technology for the June quarter – up from $9,000 in the previous quarter.

The company attributed the growth to growing penetration of the technology within the Australian cycling community and with wholesalers.

The company has been peddling a strategic marketing campaign, which it said has resulted in growth of the Turbine’s social media profile and the appointment of a high profile cycling ambassador in former Tour de France green jersey winner Baden Cooke to endorse the product.

The company said it had anticipated a positive sales upswing, following the product’s January 2014 launch and the introduction of the Turbine technology to potential user groups, with an initial focus on the sports cycling community.

“We are actively promoting our novel technology to those sporting groups who can gain immediate benefit,” Rhinomed CEO Michael Johnson said in the company’s announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange.

“Our first target market was the Australian cycling community.

“Exposing our device and its benefits to this group has resulted in our database growing to over 12,000 cycling enthusiasts.

“These positive sales figures demonstrate our strategy is steadily gaining traction in this important arena.”

Rhinomed appointed Cooke as a Turbine brand ambassador in Europe in May this year and he is actively promoting the Turbine technology to European cyclists, particularly during the Tour de France, which is now underway.

“The Turbine is proving to be a valuable solution to anyone, anywhere who finds themselves short of breath,” Johnson said.

“Introducing the Turbine to the Australian cycling market was only the beginning, we are increasingly focused on global opportunities.”

Website: www.rhinomed.com.au

What the Brokers Say

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WHAT THE BROKERS SAY: Interesting news and views from across the Resource Analyst universe.

Website: www.breakawayresearch.com

Tungsten Mining NL (ASX: TGN)

Tungsten Mining is an Australian mineral exploration company focused on the development and exploitation of tungsten projects.

Following the establishment of a maiden JORC resource at its flagship Kilba project in the Gascoyne region in Western Australia, the company released the results of an in‐house scoping study which indicated a viable and economically attractive project.

The project is on a granted Mining License and all environmental studies have been completed.

Based on a tungsten price of US$440/mtu APT, average annual production of 154,000 mtu over a seven year mine life, recovery of 80 per cent, capital cost of $56 million and average LOM operating costs of US$212/mtu, the project NPV was $36 million.

Previous modelling by Breakaway confirmed a valuation in line with the company’s estimate.

A shortage of funding slowed down activities over the past 6‐9 months, but following the recent capital raising, drilling will re‐commence and full feasibility studies begin.

Successful capital raising of $4.34 million (before costs) in a subdued small‐resources market seen as a significant achievement.

Proceeds of the capital raising to be used to advance feasibility studies, including further drill outs, metallurgical test work and engineering studies, infrastructure requirements and permitting and marketing.

Australian iron ore company GWR Group Limited has become the largest shareholder, securing a 16.5 per cent interest in the recent entitlement issue.

Additional metallurgical studies carried out in 2013 have indicated the potential for Dense Medium Scalping which, if successful, would effectively reduce the amount of ore to be processed by more than 50 per cent.

Successful implementation of Dense Medium Scalping has the potential to significantly reduce processing plant capital requirements and overall capital and operating costs.

Paul Berndt will stand down as managing director but will continue as a non‐executive director and consultant to the company from 1 August 2014.

Following the recent capital raising Tungsten Mining is poised to recommence drilling and feasibility studies on its flagship Kilba project with the intention of transitioning into production in a short time frame.

Disclaimer: The above is intended as a guide only. The Roadhouse accepts no responsibility for investments made from this advice, successful or otherwise.

The views, opinions or recommendations of this article do not in any way reflect the views, opinions, recommendations, of The Resources Roadhouse.

The Roadhouse makes no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy, completeness or currency of the content. The content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Independent advice should be obtained from an Australian financial services licensee before making investment decisions.